According to the website of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in May 2022 was 53.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, ending the downward trend for two consecutive months, but a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the same period last year. In the first quarter of the year, the average fell by 1.1 percentage points.
Analysts believe that rising inflationary pressures, geopolitical conflicts that have not improved and the impact of repeated epidemics continue to consume the momentum of global economic recovery. Inflationary pressure has forced many countries to adjust the direction of monetary policy, returning from “easy” to “normalized”, which objectively slowed down the impetus for global economic recovery. The repeated epidemics continue to disrupt the continuity of supply chains and industrial chains in various countries, and the power of the supply side is weakened. In addition to further fueling inflationary pressures, geopolitical conflicts have also adversely affected global trade activity.
The data shows that the overall PMI of overseas markets in May was better than expected, and showed that the western developed countries were better than emerging countries. Among them, the PMI index of the United States rebounded from 55.4 in the previous month to 56.1, showing that the economic growth momentum of the United States is still strong. The risk of recession is low. At the same time, the PMI indexes of India and Vietnam lead the major Asian countries, and the recovery of the PMI indexes of emerging countries such as Russia and Mexico is also a bright spot.
In May, the growth momentum of the global manufacturing industry turned stronger, with developed countries rebounding better than expected, and emerging countries pulling back at the bottom. The global manufacturing PMI index was 52.4 in May, basically unchanged from the previous month. PMIs for most western countries were better than expected and remained around 55. The manufacturing PMIs of the euro area and the EU were 54.6 and 54.2 respectively, continuing the recent trend of high volatility and slow decline. Affected by the recovery of the manufacturing prosperity of many emerging countries, the PMI index of emerging countries rose to 49.5, but it remained below the line of prosperity and decline for three consecutive months, reflecting the weak momentum of economic recovery in emerging countries. The Asian PMI index remained at around 52.
By region:
In Asia, the prosperity of major countries improved slightly in May, the manufacturing PMI index continued to be in the expansion range, and India and Vietnam rose above 54 to perform brilliantly. In May, China’s manufacturing PMI was 49.6%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from 47.4% in the previous month, and the overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry has improved.
In Europe, the manufacturing PMI of European countries rose higher than expected, and the German manufacturing PMI index rose to 54.8, showing that the economic growth momentum was still strong in the middle of the year, and in the case of geopolitical conflicts and external sanctions, Russia’s May PMI index It rose against the trend and rose above the line of prosperity and decline, showing that its domestic economic stabilization policy has achieved initial results.
In the Americas, the PMIs of major countries in the Americas improved significantly in May, and the manufacturing boom in Mexico and Brazil rebounded significantly. In May, Mexico’s PMI index was 50.6, the first time it stood on the line of prosperity and decline after the epidemic in 2022.
The overall U.S. manufacturing PMI index was better than expected. In May, the ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI index rose to 56.1 from 55.4 in the previous month, stronger than market expectations of 54.5. The higher-than-expected rise shows that the US economic growth momentum is still good, and the risk of a recession in the middle of the year is not great. In terms of sub-items, the price sub-item dropped slightly but the absolute value was still high. The new orders index rebounded slightly, standing above 55 in the past two years, showing that domestic demand in the United States is still strong.
